The Washington Capitals are currently the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. What do their statistics suggest about their mathematical chances?
By: Shane Lambert
I don’t think that the Washington Capitals are going to win the Stanley Cup this season. I understand that they appear to be the best team in the NHL at the moment and that they stand an excellent chance of gaining the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, Alex Ovechkin is by and large a post-season bust and coach Barry Trotz has won only three playoff series in almost two decades of head coaching service. Those factors alone have made me very skeptical of Washington, keeping in mind that the regular season and post-season are totally different animals.
Ovechkin’s recent injury news certainly doesn’t help change my opinion, although I don’t think that the injury is all that serious. But, for those that want a different perspective, NHL.com recently published an article that pertains to Washington’s chances.
Titled “Statistical breakdown of four leading Cup contenders” and written by Rob Vollman, the article suggests that Washington have a 29.9% “chance of winning the Stanley Cup” later this year. The article notes “strong goaltending and the NHL’s best power player” as reasons why Washington have a large chance of succeeding in the 2016 playoffs.
If you take that percentage at face value, then you would back Washington to win the 2016 Stanley Cup. They are currently priced at 6 to 1, odds that would only imply a 14.3% chance of winning the cup. Basically if they have a 29.9% chance then there is a 15.6% overlay in the interests of the bettor when backing Washington at 6 to 1.
Again, Washington aren’t my pick for betting value. I think that the Florida Panthers at 32 to 1 (888Sport) are a much better risk. Those odds suggest about a 3% chance of winning the Cup, despite the fact that they are a division leader and potentially looking at a couple home series to open the playoffs. However, for those that want to go with what NHL.com have to offer, the Caps at 6 to 1 is available with 888Sport or Unibet.