Author argues that the only way to oppose Golden State in Western Conference futures is to go with San Antonio.
By: Shane Lambert
The various futures markets in the NBA are hardly interesting at the moment. With division races in the west in particular, there isn’t a single bet that looks worth making. Oklahoma, Golden State, and San Antonio are all runaway favorites with odds no longer than -1600 (1/16) available on a team that might plausibly win a regular season divisional title (ie. San Antonio’s odds with Betway). However, Golden State have not been their normal razor sharps selves in recent weeks and opposing them for the Western Conference title with San Antonio is a play worth making.
Differentiating between the Spurs and the Warriors is essentially splitting hairs. Both teams are amazing at home and both teams are very strong on the road. At present, Golden State are 38-4 overall on the year while the Spurs are 36-6.
However, at least with San Antonio you get a little bit of a top up on a winning bet should they win the Western Conference. For example, with SkyBet the Spurs are +225 (9/4) in the Western Conference futures market. Golden State, in contrast, are available at nothing better than -110 (10/11; Paddy Power).
The Spurs have so many players with so much playoff success that you can take them confident that they won’t be burned by a first or second round upset in the post-season. You have to feel the same confidence with Golden State although the Warriors are more reliant on their star player than the Spurs in my view. That is a point worth noting as GS have a lot of eggs in one basket – a short-termed injury to Steph Curry at the wrong time of the post-season could end Golden State’s season. Furthermore, we’ve seen that Curry is injury proned this season as he missed some games in the last month – with very noticeable results on the court.
But overall, NBA futures don’t look amazing right now. I guess the Clippers have been a hot team lately and they are are 14 to 1 for the west with William Hill. However, I think going with San Antonio at 9 to 4 is the current play to make.
1.5-pt bet on San Antonio to win the Western Conference with SkyBet