Rafael Nadal, Simona Halep – Promising Parlay at 2016 Madrid

Halep and Nadal are both on Saturday’s order of play at the mixed tennis event in Madrid.

By: Shane Lambert

Saturday’s order of play at Madrid is out and it will feature Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Kei Nishikori, Andy Murray, Simona Halep, and Dominika Cibulkova. The women’s draw is down to finalists however the men’s is still at the semifinal stage. The schedule for the various matches for Saturday, May 6th is below for the main court:

  1. Not before 1pm local time: ATP – [5] Rafael Nadal vs. [2] Andy Murray (GBR)
  2. To follow: WTA – Doubles Final
  3. Not Before 6:00 pm: WTA – Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) vs [6] Simona Halep (ROU)
  4. Not Before 8:00 pm ATP – [1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs [6] Kei Nishikori (JPN)

The favorites in the three singles matches are Nadal, Halep, and Djokovic with the latter coming in at a pretty steep 1/8 with bet365, odds that are perhaps too steep given who the Serb is playing. However, odds on Halep and Nadal definitely look worthwhile for a parlay. Halep is priced at 4/9 while Nadal is priced at 1/2.

In regard to the Halep match, you have to like the Romanian a lot better in the final than her counterpart. Cibulkova has laboured to the final match with numerous dropped sets and only one quality win. Halep, on the other hand, is into the final with just one dropped set and a dominant win over Timea Baczsinsky, a semifinalist last year at Roland Garros.

With Murray vs. Nadal, this is a show that we’ve seen numerous times before. While Murray does have 6 wins over Nadal that’s out of 23 total matches. Furthermore, only one of Murray’s wins came on clay as he beat Nadal in the Madrid final last season at a time when Nadal was not playing as well as he seems to be now.

I wouldn’t buy into the result of that match for any reason, but rather I would look at results from Monte-Carlo 2016 and 2014 clay-court matches instead. The three most-recent relevant matches compiled, Nadal is 7-2 in sets played against Andy on clay and 8-1 overall in matches played on the surface over their careers. That makes 1/2 look pretty valuable in my view with a parlay between Halep and Nadal producing odds of about 6/5.

If you want to add some ooomph to the line with the Nishikori/Djokovic match then game handicaps are the way to go. I find them tricky but 5/4 for Nishikori to cover at +4.5 looks alright. All three events parlayed produces a nice 39/10, but I would feel much safer with just Nadal and Halep parlayed straight up.

Recommendations:

2.5-pt bet on Nadal/Halep parlayed at 6/5 with bet365

1-pt bet on Nadal/Halep/Nishikori-to-cover at 39/10 with bet365