Article examines the third quarter of the 2016 French Open, where Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic are the betting favorites.
By: Shane Lambert
Milos ‘The Missile’ Raonic was one of the seeded players in action at the 2016 French Open on Monday. The Canadian faced veteran Janko Tipsarevic, a player no longer near his best tennis at this point in his career. Raonic advanced fairly comfortably with just one close set, winning the encounter 6-3, 6-2, 7-6(5). The 8th seed at Roland Garros, Raonic remains a very tricky player in the men’s draw.
For betting outrights the Canadian is still way out there, priced at 100/1 with Bwin. But Raonic looks to be a bigger factor in his quarter than in the entire draw. The service giant is priced at +240 (12/5) with bet365 to make at least the semis.
Raonic’s quarter might feature defending-champ Stan Wawrinka, but it still definitely looks to be the weak quarter at this year’s French. Wawrinka almost saw elimination in the first round as he only defeated Lukas Rosol by the minimum margin in a 5th set.
With Wawrinka, the problem with taking him to win the quarter is short odds and below-par form of late. Stan is priced shorter than even with bet365 at -120 (5/6) to make the semifinal round. In regard to his form, his Geneva win doesn’t impress me much as it was just a 250-level tournament and if anything it may have fatigued Wawrinka, perhaps explaining his near first-round loss.
Raonic isn’t long enough for a price either in my opinion, mainly because of the 5-set format in majors. The Canadian does have two quarterfinal victories in his career, but he is also injury proned. If he faces some tough five setters at any point in the early rounds then he could be in big trouble in the middle rounds. I would like at least 6 to 1 on Raonic to win his quarter in order to feel like I was getting something solid.
Gilles Simon is the player that I think bettors should be taking in the 3rd quarter of this year’s French. He’s out at 12/1 still following his first-round win in straight sets. The 16 seed has Guido Pella up next and then no one more proven than Viktor Troicki, a player who was extended deep in the first round and who has struggled with consistent success in majors in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
If Simon and Wawrinka meet in the fourth round then I would expect the former to win. Following that, the Frenchman would have no one better than Raonic, a player that could be hobbled or blighted by something or other by then.
1.5-pt bet on Simon to win the 3rd quarter at the French Open with BetVictor